Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KJKL 241019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
519 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storm brings significant, impactful snow and ice
  accumulations this weekend.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 513 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026

As of the 0719Z surface analysis, a 1047 mb surface high is centered
over the tri-point of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This highs
influence is being felt across much of the northern CONUS, including
eastern Kentucky. Surface high pressure is keeping the area dry
while ushering a modified Arctic airmass into the region.
Consequently, overnight lows have fallen into the single digits in
the Bluegrass region to the upper teens along the Tennessee border.
Winds have helped in wind chill values falling into the negatives
and single digits. Temperatures may bottom out with a few more
degrees of cooling; however, thickening cirrus shield ahead of an
approaching surface low will limit further diabatic cooling. The
aforementioned surface low is located over the Houston-Galveston
Metro, but its influence is felt across much of the southern CONUS,
as evidenced by the expansive swath of winter weather headlines
stretching from New Mexico to Vermont.

Surface high pressure will remain dominant to start the forecast
period; however, as the Gulf Coast surface low moves eastward along
a tight baroclinic zone, the associated precipitation shield will
approach from the southwest and track quickly northeast. By later
this morning, isentropic forcing will introduce snow into the
region, bringing quick accumulations through this afternoon. During
the evening and overnight hours, a 30 to 40-knot 850 mb LLJ will
promote WAA and a deep warm layer aloft. This will lead to a
transition toward a wintry mix and eventually all rain in southern
locations as the surface low ejects northeastward through Sunday
morning. In far southeastern Kentucky, the column will warm
sufficiently to transition snow to all rain. Further northwest,
where the elevated warm nose is most impactful, a combination of
rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected. In the
northernmost tiers, a more muted warm nose will favor a prolonged
sleet and snow mix. Theres been a continued northward shift in
where the individual areas of wintry p-type exists but with this
forecast package, areas along and southeast of a line from Wayne to
Letcher counties will see the highest rain chances, leading to
diminished snowfall totals, though snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches and ice accretions of 0.2 to 0.5 inches remain possible.
Centrally located areas, including Pulaski to Pike to Johnson to
Estill counties, will see higher snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
with similar ice totals of 0.2 to 0.5 inches. Locations along and
northwest of a line from Powell to Elliott counties will see ice
accumulations up to 0.3 inches, but a colder vertical profile will
support higher snowfall totals of 6 to 10 inches, with the highest
amounts north of the I-64 corridor. As the system tracks along the
Appalachians, mixed precipitation will persist through Sunday
evening. By the end of the forecast window, CAA on the back side of
the departing low will transition all remaining liquid precipitation
back to sleet and snow.

The period will be highlighted by a significant synoptic-scale storm
system originating from the Deep South, bringing widespread heavy
snowfall and a complex wintry mix to the region beginning later
today and persisting through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 518 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026

Models are in good agreement to start the period, with an upper
level trough extending from Canada into the central to eastern
Conus. Multiple shortwaves are expected to be moving through the
trough from the Central Conus/Plains and into the OH Valley and
Appalachians at that point. An initial shortwave trough should be
moving through the OH Valley as the period begins. Another shortwave
is progged by guidance to be nearing the Lower OH Valley region at
that time, while the axis of the 500 mb trough lingers upstream. A
complex major winter storm should be in place ahead of the trough.
An initial sfc low tracking across the Southeast should be centered
in GA with an inverted trough north to a secondary low in the OH
Valley region, and a developing coastal low of the Mid Atlantic
coast are expected to be present to begin the period. Further
upstream, cold high pressure should initially be centered in the
Dakotas. Warmer temperatures aloft and at the surface will have
moved into the area on Sunday, and southeastern locations will
likely be above freezing as the long term period begins.

However as the initial shortwave moves to the north and east and the
next shortwave upstream moves across the OH Valley, the coastal low
should take shape/become primary, and colder air advects rather
quickly back into the entire region. This occurs as high pressure
builds quickly south in the Central Conus. Sfc temperatures should
fall back into the teens to single digits by around dawn on Monday.
The colder air moving back in along with the passing shortwaves
should result in mixed wintry precipitation transitioning back to
snow. Steadier precipitation tapers off toward dawn on Monday as
deeper moisture departs. Snow that falls on Sunday night to early
Monday should be drier compared much of the snow in the near term
and some light accumulations are forecast.

For Monday, the heating of the day, cold air advection, and the
approach of a shortwave trough combined with moisture into the DGZ
and low level flow that will have an upslope and component should
result in snow showers or flurries lingering well into the day.
However, as the sfc high settles across the Southern Plains it will
also build toward the Lower OH Valley region. Low level flow should
become anticyclonic on Monday night with some warm advection also
occurring aloft such as near 850 mb. This should result in flurries
in the east and southeast ending on Monday evening into Monday
night. With some anticipated snow cover and high pressure building
in as well as skies likely to clear or partially clear, opted to
lower min T a couple of degrees across the board for Monday night,
with the largest departures from the NBM deterministic in the
valleys. This resulted in min T in the single digits below zero to
single digits above zero range. Min wind chills/min apparent
temperatures should be below zero areawide for Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

An upper level trough is expected to linger from Canada into the
Central to eastern Conus for the remainder of the week. Additional
multiple impulses/shortwaves moving through this trough should bring
reinforcing colder air into the Central and eastern Conus including
the OH Valley and the Commonwealth from mid to late week. One of
these and its associated clipper system in the late Wednesday to
Thursday timeframe could bring some light snow with it as well.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period following the
weekend winter storm. High temperatures likely struggle to rise out
of the 20s or near the freezing mark for Monday to Friday. Lows will
mostly be in the single digits to teens with instances of below zero
lows forecast for Monday night as noted above with anticipated snow
cover. Some below zero readings are possible again on Friday behind
the midweek clipper system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast until mid day on Saturday, although
ceilings will begin lowering in the morning. Snow will develop
from southwest to northeast across the area in the afternoon and
conditions will deteriorate, dropping generally to IFR by 00z and
persisting into the night. The snow should change to a mix of
freezing rain and sleet over south central and southeast KY on
Saturday evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL